Atal speaks the truth in 70% of the cases and George speaks the truth in 60% cases. In what percentage of cases are they likely to contradict each other in stating the same fact?

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  1. 44%
  2. 45%
  3. 46%
  4. 47%

Answer (Detailed Solution Below)

Option 3 : 46%
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Detailed Solution

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Concept:

  • P(not A) = 1 - P(A).
  • Probability of a Compound Event [(A and B) or (B and C)] is calculated as:

    P[(A and B) or (B and C)] = [P(A) × P(B)] + [P(C) × P(D)]

    ('and' means '×' and 'or' means '+')

 

Calculation:

Probability of Atal speaking the truth is 70% = 0.7.

Probability of Atal NOT speaking the truth is 1 - 0.7 = 0.3.

Probability of George speaking the truth is 60% = 0.6.

Probability of George NOT speaking the truth is 1 - 0.6 = 0.4.

They both will contradict each other in the following case:

(Atal speaks the truth AND George does not speak the truth) OR (Atal does not speak the truth AND George speaks the truth).

∴ The required probability is:

[P(Atal speaking the truth) × P(George not speaking the truth)] + [P(Atal not speaking the truth) × P(George speaking the truth)]

= (0.7 × 0.4) + (0.3 × 0.6)

= 0.28 + 0.18

= 0.46.

∴ They both contradict each other in 46% of the cases.

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